Conference publications

Abstracts

XVI conference

Hysteresis in economy

Lebedeva T.A.

t-leb@ya.ru

Last years the concept of a hysteresis is used and in economy. It has appeared, that the effect of a hysteresis is shown at the analysis of macroeconomic processes of short-term forecasting on the basis of use of nonlinear mathematical models keynesianism type, at the analysis of macroeconomic processes of long-term forecasting on the basis of the modified models of Solow type, etc.. In the report examples of use of the term a hysteresis as a metaphor meaning unusual development of dynamic process which on a phase plane is represented in the form of some loop are discussed. One of such examples is connected with research in work dynamics of macroeconomic indicators of Russia in 1968-1997 In this work the projection of a trajectory of the macroeconomic system which condition is described, generally speaking, by some n-dimensional vector, on a plane «gross national product - ELECTRIC POWER MANUFACTURE» is considered. On the basis of statistical data it is shown, that this projection looks like a loop which is named in [5] loop of a hysteresis in broad sense as a metaphor.

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