Conference publications

Abstracts

XVII conference

Phase transitions in economy and demography

Slovokhotov Y.L.

Moscow, Russia phone (495)-939-54-34, email slov@phys.chem.msu.ru

Empirical analogies in dynamics of multi-agent social systems and macroscopic systems of interacting “non-living” particles studied by statistical physics, give a ground for a physical interpretation of social phenomena. Formation of a stable structure (i.e. phase) in a big system of interacting “living particles” allows to describe a social crisis as an abrupt transition from one structure to another upon variations of the system’s overall parameters – i.e. as a phase transition. In physical terms, it is caused by the “region of attraction” in the space of parameters governing interaction of agents in a social system, and by a statistical smearing of such interactions in a big ensemble. The main theoretical problems to be solved in “social physics” are therefore a formalization of the agent-to-agent interations and a search for basic principles of their non-classical statistics.

The analogies of phase transitions and critical phenomena in “non-living” physical systems with some crisis processes in economy and society are discussed on the empirical level. A divergence of critical parameters of a multidomain physical system near a transition point resembles a hyperbolic growth of some quantitative parameters in a multidomain social system near a crisis; both trends reflect a hyperbolic increase of an average domain size of the forming phase. The intensive parameters governing a social transition play a role of generalized forces, like temperature and expernal field, in a physical phase transition.

The emripical model of the current world economic crisis as a spontaneous “condensation” of assets in the U.S. economy during its fast expansion from 1993 to 2008, resulted in a large number of poorly controlled world-scale enterprises, is suggested. Two biggest waves of mergers and acquisitions in the USA in this period, the relationship of the modern crisis with the Great Depression of 1929-1933, and a currend dynamics of some world indexes are discussed on the basis of this physical analogy. A very similar “condensation” model allows to explain the hyperbolic growth of world population in I–XX centures as a result of a gradual coalescence of human habitation domains that improve their internal living conditions. This model does not require a vulnerable postulate of free exchange of knowledge and wealth in the pre-capitalist world used in contemporary theory of world demography (M.Cremer, Quart. J. Econ., 108, 681 (1993)). A historical data that support the condensation growth model, are discussed.

• view as PDF (in Russian) (PDF)