A comparison of two inter-household communication models
Московский государственный университет культуры и искусств Институт информационных коммуникаций и библиотек Кафедра прикладной информатики Россия, 141406, Московская обл., г. Химки, ул. Библиотечная, д.71 pp. (accepted)
Using data from several Russian sociological surveys we compare classic Bass diffusion model and a new multistage model where at first stage a phone is purchased for a household, and at later stages additional devices are purchased for individuals. This approach assumes that the likelihood of adoption is proportional to the number of contacts of the head of household with the mobile phone users. This model successfully explains three types of survey data: mobile phone personal ownership, usage, and household penetration. Yet this model does not explain observed differences of cell phone diffusion in large and small households. We develop a second model of inter-household communications, where the likelihood of adoption is a function of the number of contacts of all household members (not just the head) with previous adopters. Only one ordinary differential equation needs to be solved numerically in order to obtain the problem solution.