Conference publications

Abstracts

XXI conference

Population dynamics: theory, observations, experiments. The problem of predictability

Medvinsky A.B., Nurieva N.I., Rusakov A.V.

Institute of Theoretical & Experimental Biophysics, Pushchino, Moscow Region, 142290

Assessment of predictability of population size irregular fluctuations is one of the challenges, which is under constant attention of the researches . In this connection it should be important to reveal factors, which can impact validity of the fluctuation predictability assessments. We discuss the factors, which can essentially impact the predictability of population dynamics. Namely, we show that among these are

1) a quality (the length as an example) of the time series obtained in the course of experiments or field observations;

2) chaoticity of inherent population dynamics;

3) characteristic size of a chaotic attractor;

4) parametric instability of the dynamics;

5) dependence of the horizon of predictability on the time scale;

6) competition between separate coexisting attractors;

7) a structure of attraction basins.

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