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Conference publications

Abstracts

XXIII conference

Genesis and models of formation of catastrophe

Schwarzman M.M.

black_drive@smtp.ru

1 pp. (accepted)

Formation of catastrophe happens owing to accumulation: wrong actions of employees and influence of stochastic factors. By means of the Statistica appendix the following operations were consistently performed: transformation of a row to continuous stochastic function; identification of model; assessment of parameters of model; research of its adequacy; dependence forecasting.

Two models were revealed: autoregression and the sliding average. The model of autoregression describes a condition of system, in view of its previous states. The model of the sliding average considers accumulation of internal and external stochastic impacts on system. The assessment of model showed its adequacy. The curve of the forecast corresponded to the available statistical data.

Feature of genesis of formation of catastrophe consists in increase in sensitivity (stability reduction) of system, after each precatastrophe influence. In the last state before catastrophe, weak influence (effect of butterfly) initiates catastrophe.



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