Conference publications

A Model of the Forest Fire Stochastic Process

Paramonov A. V., Markov P. N.

"Математика. Компьютер. Образование". Cб. трудов XVI международной конференции. Под общей редакцией Г.Ю. Ризниченко Ижевск: Научно-издательский центр "Регулярная и хаотическая динамика", 2009. Vol. 1. Pp. 456-469. (accepted)

The joint sample of daily values of the number of forest fire seats and the complex meteorological index in Irkutsk region, seasons 1969--1990, is investigated. The stochastic process of forest fire evolution is well described by proposed MAR(1)S model, which includes multiplicative seasonal component and AR(1) autoregressive process. Computer algorithm for the simulation of the future numbers of fire seats is presented. It is shown how the algorithm can be used for reliable forecasting of the evolution of forest fire up to 2 days ahead.

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