Substantiation of efficiency of actions for decrease in risks of emergency situations in the framework of implementation of state programs of subjects of the Russian Federation

Arefyeva E.V.

Russian Scientific Research Institute of civil defence and emergency management (federal science and high technology centre) EMERCOM of Russia,

The direction of the measures of the state program of the Russian Federation to protect the population from threats of natural and man-made nature is that risk management activities should include activities to reduce the danger, vulnerability and increase the security and sustainability of territories, and, accordingly, should be evaluated in the following areas: a) threats (hazard indicators, critical levels of danger); b) the state of vulnerability of the population, objects, territory (vulnerability indicators); c) state of security, incl. the potential for countering threats, responding to threats (indicators of the potential for counteraction). Methodical support of the development of a rational management decision (that is, the choice of various measures to reduce the risk of disasters in order to improve the indicators of the state program has as its goal the development of effective measures within the framework of the state program at the subject level, taking into account the improvement of the state program indicators). The algorithm of the methodical apparatus includes computational procedures: 1) Assessment and analysis of the past and current situation in the given territory on the basis of statistical data (assessment of hazards and threats of natural and man-made nature, evaluation of available forces and means, identification of gaps). 2) On the basis of these reports, state reports, an analysis of damages from emergencies is carried out and the most significant types of emergencies characteristic of the subject (natural - technogenic, bio-social), fires, etc., are identified. 3) The most unfavorable municipalities, districts are identified, due to inadequate forces and resources for disaster prevention, response to emergencies, fires, etc. 4) The forecast of hazardous processes is being implemented, taking into account the application of prevention and protection measures against natural and man-made threats and without taking into account these measures. 5) The projected values of various indicators of emergencies (indicators of emergency situations, indicators of the state program for different types of emergencies, etc.) are determined on the basis of data from state reports, statistical reports on emergencies, fires, etc. 6) Selection of effective measures for the prevention of emergencies, fires, including, taking into account their impact on reducing the causes of emergencies, fires. Preliminary ranking of causes and sources of emergencies, fires is carried out.7) Selection of effective emergency response activities is carried out based on performance criteria: response speed, scale, completeness of coverage.

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