Conference publications

Abstracts

XX conference

A quantitative model of Perfiliev's Internet diffusion wave in urban and rural areas

Delitsin L.L.

Department of Applied Informatics, 7 Bibliotechnaya, 141406, Khimki, Russia

We develop a quantitative model of ICT diffusion from urban to rural areas of Russia. We apply this model to forecast the Internet penetration in Russian cities and villages until 2018. To identify the parameters of the model we use Public Opinion Foundation quarterly surveys data. We consider a growing market potential scenario and a conservative alternative.

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